“Inflation projected to be 0.6% – CMHC Forecast”

After a friend of mine (who also happens to be a successful Kamloops Realtor) shared this bit of news that he had heard on the radio, I was perplexed.  I found the news opposite to what my 5+ years of research was saying, so I asked for the link to dig deeper.  I got the link last week,(thanks Aaron) and got to dig into the media statements a bit.

The Claims

Kamloops Real Estate Remains Flat – “Numbers provided by Kamloops and District Real Estate Association and Central 1 Credit Union show sales growth in the Tournament Capital is flat, with housing prices largely unchanged since 2010.”

 

The Facts

This article is talking about short term sales growth, not the long term picture that sophisticated investors look at.

I detail the coming boom in Kamloops(and why we are in the middle of the Recovery Phase of the real estate cycle) in a recent article you can read here. Highlights that prove we are in the recovery:
– Kamloops affordability index is in the “hot zone” between 25-33%(monthly housing costs a a percentage of income)
– strong returns($800/mo Cashflow on $67,000 invested!)
– population increase
– rent increases(I increased rent by 23% upon turnover in one of my places this month)
– Continued decline in vacancy rate
– increased construction levels(over $150 million in Kamloops in 24 months, not including housing)
– mini boom for building companies(try to get a good contractor these days)
– neighbourhoods change as previously differed maintenace takes priority(lots of reno projects are everywhere)
– media clues include: confusion about if RE is a good investment and lots of people pointing to value deteriorating in the preceeding years

The headline “Real Estate remains flat” highlights this confusion, and let’s the masses think that real estate is a poor investment. You can read the entire analysis of which Phase of the Real Estate Cycle Kamloops is in here, and decide for yourself.

 

Summary

The article in question quotes someone about how prices are 5% lower now(in the fall) than they were in mid summer, my response is OF COURSE! Real estate activity is always higher in the summer, the weather is better and people don’t want to move in the winter when kids are in school!

Also stated in the article was that housing inventory is slowly creeping up, and we have the beginnings of a buyers market.

That great!

This is an incredible buying opportunity, and I always get my best deals in the winter months!

 

The coming boom

Like Aaron told me when we were discussing this, it doesn’t matter what the media says, vacancy rates on the ground are near zero and rents are rising each year, so its a great time to be a landlord, and certainly acquisition time in Kamloops!

So instead of freezing when you see a scary headline, read the article to see what the details are. Although the individual statements made might be true, in context of the big picture you may find the truth is quite the opposite of what is inferred.

Until next time,

Stay S.A.F.E.